I recently revisited my blog
about Europe and surprised myself by how close many of the predictions I made
have actually come to fruition – don’t know why that surprised me given the
amount of research I did before writing that, but there we are.
Things have moved on since then
though and I believe we have now reached an interesting, and pivotal point, in
the fight for 2015.
One thing that has, to my mind,
marked the current coalition out is their wish to avoid spin. Now I know my
Labour readers will be shouting at the screen now but just hang on. A function
of this rather unusual government structure is that two parties who have, for
years, hated each other’s guts and said it pretty loudly, find themselves in
bed together. Both want to retain their credentials and that means public
spats, necessary withdrawals of certain policies and a generally more honest
way of doing business.
I was (still am if I’m honest) a
Tony Blair supporter but I know that both he and Thatcher before him had moved
British politics into a more Presidential style. Both were huge personalities
who cowed the opposition through their strength of rhetoric and an absolute
ability to get their message across in a way people understood and could relate
to. Like them or loath them you have to accept that they both won a series of elections
and dominated politics during their time in office.
But the coalition is very
different. Cameron isn’t Mr Charisma but he is a tough guy and it is the
influence of Clegg and his strong LibDem ministers who keep the rhetoric at
bay. The effect is that much of what the coalition have done gets lost in a
rather more complex explanation of the policies and the reasons behind them.
Most senior politicians are intellectuals, always have been, but this time
around they haven’t managed to get their message across in anything like the
terms that Thatcher or Blair would have done. And maybe that’s a good thing.
Miliband knows this. He and his
shadow cabinet, when pushed are forced to accept that they would have done much
the same had they been in power. The cuts to public spending are necessary
although the targets might be different under Labour. The need to break the
benefits culture that had grown during the soft Blair years is also necessary
if we are to compete globally. Labour accept this whilst still complaining at
every initiative – this, of course, is the function of opposition.
But things are about to change I
fancy. The recent attack by The Mail on Ed’s dad (designed to open up a debate
about Ed himself) rattled Labour to the extent that they made way too much fuss
about it. They also misread the way the rest of the press pack would react.
Sure there was outrage from the Guardian and Independent but it didn’t last.
With press regulation now back in the spotlight the newspapers regrouped and
stand together against the kind of political interference Mr Miliband would
love and the press will simply not countenance.
In a speech yesterday Ed Miliband
warned his supporters to get ready for a press onslaught. Her has rightly seen that
the press, when anybody tries to gag them, stand together. The press also know
that the Tories don’t support the press regulation proposals and are playing
lip service so as to kick it into the long grass – they’ve said as much without
admitting it.
The danger for Labour is that
their newest policies can (unfairly) be described as state price controls and
land grabs. On top of this the energy price fix is now being looked upon (by
the Guardian no less) as a possible precursor to nationalization and that
begins to raise memories of the horrific mess the Trades Unions created in the
70’s. Couple that with the dreaded use of the term ‘Marxist’ – Ed’s dad was one
so why not he, the press will scream – and Labour will find themselves kicked
into the long grass alongside the press regulation.
Ironically the polls showing for
Labour at the moment mask the right wing division (Tory/UKIP) which is the only
thing giving them a fighting chance of winning in 2015. Worryingly, Cameron is
starting to address that issue and I believe by the time of the GE they will
have removed the threat. Tough words from Farage are simply posturing to
strengthen their negotiating position, he doesn’t want Labour to win and he
certainly doesn’t want the blame for that in right wing circles to be laid at
his door.
If the papers shout ‘Marxist’ and
lay down a smoke screen of nationalization and state price controls, Labour are
done for. No matter what they say the middle class – who consistently decide
who is in power – will walk away and we will see the Tories taking the result
by a whisker. Confusion in the middle ranks led to the coalition but there is
appetite there for more of the same, a feeling that the LibDems curb the
excesses of Tory zeal, so we could see another coalition. What we won’t see, unless
Miliband can calm press speculation, is a Labour win.
I think the press will, as they have
so often before, determine who wins the next General Election. At the moment it’s
not looking good for Mr Ed.
