In the first two parts of my investigation
into all things EU I tried to lay out the facts.
I took those who read it through the “how
we ended up in” story and how things have changed since we joined the Common
Market all those years ago. The Maastricht Treaty which changed it over to the
European Union and the way in which it now ‘earns’ its money and where it
spends it.
The fact is (as Nigal Farage delights in
telling us) that almost all of that stuff weights against the UK and leaves us
wondering why we got into this mess in the first place. But the fact is we did,
we enjoyed 10 years of amazing growth as a direct result of being in and we
slipped into a sloppy routine of relying on the EU to buy our exports and feed
us.
So whilst the people of Britain now have a
thirst for independence again (not as big a majority as UKIP would have you
believe but still a majority) there are some practical things to think about
here.
My little investigation was to help me. I
like to understand things before I start supporting them and the blind
simplicity of the UKIP argument (coupled with the fact they get very close to
being racist) meant I couldn’t just jump on their, or anybody else’s bandwagon
without thinking it through.
It is no coincidence, therefore, that this
third part has taken time to write and publish.
It is undoubtedly true that we don’t belong
in the EU; few British people describe themselves as European, we operate very
differently (we are instinctively free trade people, they are socialists who
seek the collective good) and many Europeans resent the artificially high
influence we have on global affairs – derived from our history certainly, but
still a big factor in the UK economy.
Little has been said across Europe about
the massive efforts the UK has made to refocus its export trade since 2008
either. In 2008 56% of all UK exports were to EU countries; in 2012 that’s
dropped to 37% and it’s still going down. True, UK exports as a whole have
declined massively and some of that fall is simply by us taking up the slack in
our system elsewhere in the world, but the strides made in India and Brazil are
quite extraordinary. Britain is preparing to leave and the EU knows it.
But my paper isn’t about what other people
think, it’s about where I stand. And that’s a tough one; in fact it’s much
tougher now than it was when I started this little exercise.
I believe that both the Conservatives and
Labour will finish up putting a referendum in their manifesto’s. I say this
because whilst it is certain the Conservatives will do it, I think the issue
will so polarise the next General Election, that Labour will realise that if
they don’t offer one they’ll lose purely on that issue. What seems certain to
me is that by the time of the next General Election things will be a lot closer
than they are now and the departure of David Milliband will push the Labour
Party more to the left and increasingly unelectable; so they’ll need every
advantage they can gain and leveling the playing field on Europe will be one
such advantage.
I also think we will vote to leave (as do
all our politicians) but I think it will be close. I’d venture to guess as
close as 1% either way perhaps. And that’s when the issues start.
So here’s why I’ve been mulling this over.
You see if we were to leave and turn our back on the EU we are finished. Our
economy would collapse in on itself. There is too much interplay between us and
continental Europe and you cannot just walk away from that.
UKIP says we should re-establish the ties
with our Commonwealth partners and create a Commonwealth Free Trade
Association. Quite frankly it’s bunk. First, it presumes they want to trade
with us but more importantly the key question must be if there is anything to
trade.
Australia is now part of the Asian Trade
Association and has publicly stated that its future lies there. India is making
fantastic progress in being the first country to win a free trade agreement
with China; what on earth do we have to take to that party. So whilst there is
undoubtedly trade there, we will not be at the centre of some huge mothership
steering the Commonwealth to greater glory.
But there are two options open to us. Whist
Obama sends his Ambassador to tell us that leaving the EU would damage UK/US
trade, the Republicans in the Senate have already told our leaders that they
want us to be part of NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Association) and
have outlined why they want us in and the benefits for us.
On another tack, this thing exists as a
loose formation called the NORC (Northern Rim Countries). It includes Russia,
Norway, Canada, USA and Iceland). These countries have been quietly, and
without conflict, slicing up the Arctic where the largest energy reserves on
the planet currently sit. Furthermore, with melting permafrost, there are huge
on land reserves in Canada and Russia that can be explored. Energy will be the
biggest currency of the next 50 years (just like it was the biggest of the last
50 years) and I don’t care what anybody says, the world has a thirst for oil
and gas (not wind) and will continue to do so. The NORC will become the worlds
richest area.
The Republicans know this and, when you
look at a map of the NORC territory we, the mighty UK sit right in the middle
of it; we don’t have any of the reserves but we sit strategically in the
middle. And the Americans and the Russians trust us – opportunity knocks!
I said in my last paper that the EU has
failed to make any free trade arrangements on the world stage. In fact, the
Doha Round which was supposed to open the world up to free trade, was scuppered
by the EU. There are many countries within the EU who know they need trade
agreements outside their own boundaries but one, France, fears agricultural
destruction and agriculture is always a key to free trade. Each time the EU
tries, the French kill it and they will continue to do so as they simply cannot
afford for their farming industry to be opened to competition. The French grip
on the CAP is well known, they promote inefficient farming to preserve their
way of life, and expect the rest of Europe to pay for it.
So my conclusion is this.
In qualified form I believe we will be
better off out.
We cannot join EFTA like Norway and
Switzerland as this is a truly restrictive outfit which is forced to take all
EU legislation without any representation in exchange for trade openings. We do
need to negotiate with the EU to keep trade entry points but we won’t get much.
As exit is inevitable in my view we need
our politicians (behind the scenes I accept) talking to the Republicans in the
USA, the Russians and the Canadians. We need to be prepared.
Recent trade visits by David Cameron are
opening up China and India but this will never be anything other than a small
part of what we need to grow. But imagine if our financial services products
were deregulated in the USA, if our foreign exchange became the hub of NORC
trade, if our technology could find investment in exploration and manufacture
in a favourable market, then we would be cooking on gas (forgive the pun).
There is a future out there, without the
stranglehold of the EU where the UK can be great again. Perhaps Scotland will
by then be crippled inside the Eurozone, but England has a future outside of
Europe.
So, in the words of that detestable Scots
Dragon “I’m out”.
